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[personal profile] profpr
Еще раз собрал в одном месте интересные, относящиеся к развитию событий публикации.
Русская пресса, еще раз, отличилась креативным переводом, имеющим мало общего с происходящим.
Опять всплыло древнее письмо нескольких членов APS, теперь они пропагандируют оп-эд Richard Lindzen в WSJ как сбалансированный отчет о ситуации. Richard Lindzen - один из экспертов, появляющихся в "The Great Global Warming Swindle", в фильме он рассказывает про облака, полностью компенсирующие эффект парниковых газов. Нейтральным его назвать трудно.
Nature опубликовала интересный эдиториал. Стоит почитать месиловку в комментах.
Наконец, Science сделал обзор четырех емейлов, чаще всего цитировавшихся обвинителями. Опять же, стоит почитать.

PS: SCIENCE AND SOCIETY:
Stolen E-mails Turn Up Heat on Climate Change Rhetoric
Eli Kintisch
The theft and unauthorized release last month of 1000 private e-mail messages from the servers of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom has provided a glimpse into the fractious world of climate science. The public airing of frank conversations among powerful scientists about sensitive topics such as possible holes in their data and the use of contrarian papers in major reports comes at a pivotal time for climate science, just days before a meeting of world leaders in Copenhagen.

The messages—whether hacked or released by a disgruntled insider—have raised thorny questions about the proper behavior of researchers who feel under siege for their science. How willing should they be to share their raw data with their staunchest critics? "It's very difficult to admit that your data are not as strong as you wish it were, especially if you know that will be used against you," says Nicholas Steneck, an expert on research integrity at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. And yet the "circle the wagons" mentality conveyed in numerous messages could inflict lasting "damage to the public credibility of climate research," warns climate scientist Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta.

But openness just leads to twisted interpretations, says NASA climate researcher Gavin Schmidt. "You can't have a spelling mistake in a paper without it being evidence on the floor of the Senate that the system is corrupt," says Schmidt.

Four e-mail exchanges have received most of the media attention. The first regards a research finding considered by most scientists as a canonical fact: that the globe warmed by roughly 0.7°C in the 20th century. That fact derives in large part from global temperature data recorded by stations on land and sea, as analyzed independently by groups at East Anglia, NASA, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Referring to requests for climate data from critics, CRU Director Phil Jones wrote in 2005 that "I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone." In May 2009, Jones told Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, University Park, to "delete any emails" to a colleague about their work on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and to ask a third colleague to do the same. (Mann says he conveyed the message but deleted no messages himself.) Through a spokesperson, Jones declined an interview request. But in a statement he said that "no record" has been deleted amid a bombardment of "Freedom of Information requests." CRU acknowledged in August that it deleted old data on digital tapes to make space for a move.

A second message relates to a chapter in the 2007 IPCC report that Jones edited. In 2004, he suggested that two recent papers on temperature trends didn't deserve to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report," he wrote Mann. "Kevin [Trenberth] and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is." But Trenberth, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, says the papers were indeed considered. Thomas Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, an official reviewer for the chapter, says the IPCC's peer-review procedures "were sacrosanct." Both papers wound up being cited.

A third message is viewed by critics as an acknowledgement that global warming has ceased. "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't," wrote Trenberth in October. Contrarians have noted the lack of record new highs in global temperature since 1998 (Science, 2 October, p. 28). But Trenberth was actually bemoaning something else. "The observing system we have is inadequate for tracking energy flow through the climate system," he observed, affecting the forecasting of year-to-year climate changes.

A fourth message, about assembling a diagram for a 1999 World Meteorological Organization report, has been misinterpreted, says Trenberth (see graphic). Scientists believe proxy data such as tree rings are valuable for reconstructing past climates, but certain tree-ring data became unreliable midway through the century. So scientists used proxy data for all but the final 40 years of the millennium before switching to instrumental data in 1961. "Reasonable people," writes Stephen McIntyre, a retired industry consultant and prominent blogger, might conclude that the decision not to show the divergence of the two data sets was "simply a trick" to avoid giving fuel to skeptics.

Whatever their meaning, the messages have emboldened opponents. Some are calling for congressional hearings and, possibly, lawsuits. Penn State says that it is "looking into" the matter, and the University of East Anglia has announced an investigation into the theft and contents of the e-mails.

Scientists know they will need every bit of credibility to defend their findings from future attacks. But Curry suggests that it would be better to bring the skeptics into the fold than to keep them out. That way, she says, the critics will "quickly run out of steam and become irrelevant."

Date: 2009-12-07 05:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
Андрей,

в Сайенс не пускают :( Вы не могли бы кратко пересказать, что там говорится?

Date: 2009-12-07 08:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] profpr.livejournal.com
А Nature пускает? Сейчас обновлю пост.

Thanks

Date: 2009-12-07 09:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
Nature shows the Summary and the discussion. And there is a link to their editorial.

Date: 2009-12-07 11:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
больше понравилась статья в Сайенс, чем в Нейчер: более спокойная, говорящая о действительной проблеме - методологии исследований, а не о спасении подмоченной репутации...

Date: 2009-12-07 11:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] profpr.livejournal.com
Обе статьи хорошие. Нейча поднимает вопрос о недопустимости разрешения научных споров средствами публичного диспута, и тут я полностью согласен.

Date: 2009-12-07 11:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
Нейч пристрастен! :(

Date: 2009-12-09 05:09 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] profpr.livejournal.com
У тебя все пристрастны, с кем ты не согласен ;-)

Date: 2009-12-10 04:27 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
и я пристрастен :)

но важнее другое: Нейч занял одну сторону, т.е. сам заявил о своей пристрастности в данном споре.

Date: 2009-12-07 11:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
--Richard Lindzen - один из экспертов, появляющихся в "The Great Global Warming Swindle", в фильме он рассказывает про облака, полностью компенсирующие эффект парниковых газов. Нейтральным его назвать трудно. --

Андрей,

в данной истории нейтральных нет - ученые или на одной, или на другой стороне.

--"It's very difficult to admit that your data are not as strong as you wish it were, especially if you know that will be used against you," says Nicholas Steneck, an expert on research integrity at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.--

это принципиальный момент: наука требует воспроизводимости экспериментов и проверки моделей, а участники скандала очень боятся этого!

Date: 2009-12-07 11:41 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] profpr.livejournal.com
По первому вопросу: Richard Lindzen представлен в цитируемом письме как нейтральная фигута, что неправильно.
По второму: Как ты это узнал? Насколько я понимаю, они не хотят в этих проверках участвовать, по крайней мере, за свой счет не хотят. А так - кому интересно, пусть проверяют, на собственные гранты.

Date: 2009-12-07 11:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tyoma-cat.livejournal.com
--Richard Lindzen представлен в цитируемом письме как нейтральная фигута, что неправильно--

из статьи в ВСДж этого не следует.

--Насколько я понимаю, они не хотят в этих проверках участвовать, по крайней мере, за свой счет не хотят--

CRU Director Phil Jones wrote in 2005 that "I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone."
...
Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, University Park, to "delete any emails" to a colleague about their work on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and to ask a third colleague to do the same.

они не нарушили закон, испугались, но очень хотели

Date: 2009-12-08 07:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] melusine-de.livejournal.com
Как я рада найти людей, которые понимают, о чем говорят. Я тоже прочитала все это, но такое ощущение, что этого никто не видит. С другой стороны, журналы закрыты, и мало кому доступны, вот бедные люди и слушают Илларионова.

Кстати, там в Nature по ссылкам можно выйти вот на этот текст, он там висит как pdf, ссылку не получается дать:
John Mashey’s tour-de-force 128 page analysis of the petition and the denier (un)social network behind it.

Преинтереснейший документ, удивительные вещи показывает. Становится очень понятно, кто и как работает на климатический bias.

Date: 2009-12-09 05:09 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] profpr.livejournal.com
Вы знаете, а мне грустно, что нельзя высказать своего мнения без того, чтобы меня не проанализировали - сколько мне лет, как я зарабатываю деньги, за кого голосую. Хотя, не скрою, и интересно тоже :-) Особенно подавляющая поддержка "подписантами" республиканцев поразила. Спасибо.

Date: 2009-12-09 02:15 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yurvor.livejournal.com
Да ладно! Британские учёные журналисты докопались (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/was-russian-secret-service-behind-leak-of-climatechange-emails-1835502.html) до того, кто всё это устроил на самом деле! :-)

Date: 2009-12-09 04:11 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] profpr.livejournal.com
Какая прелесть! С Вашего позволения вынесу отдельным постом.

Date: 2009-12-09 07:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yurvor.livejournal.com
Конечно! :)

Date: 2009-12-09 09:30 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] melusine-de.livejournal.com
Ух ты! Вроде бы это было и так очевидно, но все равно неожиданно, уж так просто))

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